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Setting Right Price a Challenge in Real Estate Market

Decline in housing values less in township than other places.

 

As I'm sure you know, there has been a lot in the media about real estate, including gloom and doom reports about the housing market. Most of what you read is indeed true for a particular market, but real estate is a local phenomenon.

So don't expect to pick up a five-bedroom Colonial on Canterbury Way for $600,000, just because you saw something online that said there might be a foreclosure in that neighborhood!

Nevertheless, some areas have been hit very hard by the recession, and that can make it more of a challenge for pricing a house to be placed on the market.

Most recently, I wrote about pricing right. I have been analyzing data in such a way as to test my hypothesis regarding how quickly a house sells once it is priced right. I adjusted days on market to reflect time between price reduction and contract—and confirmed that once a property is priced right it sells relatively quickly.  

Finding that right price is often a challenge. I am working on pricing plans for two properties for which there aren't many comparable listings. Each of these homes has sold in the last four or five years so I am using market depreciation to determine the most reasonable list price. This is easier than finding comps, because in essence, I am using the best comp possible: the same house!

"They" say that we have had a 20 percent decline in values since 2005. That would mean that a property sold in 2005 for $1.3 million might sell today for $1,040,000.

Once again, I got out my Excel spreadsheet and analyzed the data. I found six properties (listed more than $900,000) that have sold twice since 2005. In only one case was the later sale price the same or better than the earlier sale price. And in no case was the later sale price a full 20 percent less than the earlier sale price. In fact, the average decrease in sale price over the five properties was only 9 percent since 2005.

When I expanded the data set to include all properties, I actually found 23 homes sold in 2005 and again in the last 12 months and the average decrease in sale price was 13 percent. Not nearly the dive that the national media would have us believe.

What's happening today in town? There are 186 available properties ranging from $199,000, which is an affordable housing unit in The Cedars, to a property listed for $4,850,000.

The average list price is $848,225  and to summon up a little sixth grade math (my daughter just started at William Annin Middle School), the median list price is $557,450. There were only 21 contract sales in the last 30 days (compared to 36 the previous 30 days and 35 before that) which is an inventory level of nine months.

This is pretty high for Basking Ridge for which the usual inventory level (based on a ratio of contracted sales and the remaining listings of available properties)  fluctuates between five and seven months on any given day. But I believe that this "spike" is seasonal in nature and I'm not going to concern myself with it unless it persists.

Here's what sold during the month of September:

  • 63 Lurline Drive—$550,000
  • 45 Jeffrey Court—$950,000
  • 46 E Craig St.—$877,000
  • 176 Lake Road—$750,000
  • 14 Conkling St.—$790,000
  • 3099 Valley Road—$759,000
  • 19 Beacon Crest Drive—$$1,105,000
  • 84 Highland Ave.—$455,000
  • 55 Juniper Way—$815,000
  • 4 E Fairview Drive—$622,500
  • 14 Old Coach Road—$999,999
  • 3152 Valley Road—$480,000
  • 96 Dorchester Drive—$530,000
  • 330 English Place—$235,000
  • 79 Smithfield Court—$220,000
  • 140 Countryside Drive—$194,000
  • 259 Penns Way—$300,000
  • 2 Minuteman Court—$452,500
  • 23 Arbor Circle—$475,000
  • 25 Georgetown Court—$720,000
  • 38 Country Lane—$1,250,000
  • 14 Cayuga Way—$1,300,000
  • 129 Woodward Lane—$285,000
  • 16 Brookside Ave.—$415,000

Jennifer Blanchard is a sales associate with Weichert Realtors in Basking Ridge.

About this column: Jennifer Blanchard, a sales associate with Weichert Realtors in Basking Ridge, provides periodic updates about local real estate.

millerjame04

4:49 am on Monday, October 4, 2010

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George Gervasi

8:39 pm on Tuesday, January 18, 2011

"They" say that we have had a 20 percent decline in values since 2005. That would mean that a property sold in 2005 for $1.3 million might sell today for $1,040,000."

Actually, "they" say (Case-Shiller, Moody's Analytics and CoreLogic to name a few)
that the median price has fallen -35% from peak levels in 2005-
(really it fell -33.4% give or take a half percent) So consequently, your calculations are all off to a degree.

In fact, the above example would put the price at $858,000, instead of $1,040,000.
From your -20% figure to the real near -34% drop is a large -14% delta. Of course Basking Ridge didn't decline 34%, but I believe you were referring to the national figures. I think your efforts to analyze the market are very worthy Jennifer, but is important to present clear, credible data in doing so. Our industry is clouded as it is with a lot of mis-information and incorrect figures being touted and published, especially by the nar. I see it as the most difficult uphill battle in the business.

We have to be future ready, as consumers are becoming more savvy and have more information available to them via the web. I see it as it is our number one job , to be able to analyze and parse out the distorted data and to be able to put forth reliable and verifiable information.

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