County Population Growing Quickly, Bernards is Slowing Down

Somerset County's is one of the fastest-growing in terms of population in New Jersey, according to new statistics released by the county planning board, but the 2010 data for Bernards suggests that the township is likely done contributing to large population increases.

The population in Bernards increased over the last five years from 27,651 in 2005 to 28,352 in 2010, according to the township demographics report in April, 2010, but declining birth rates point to a slowed rate of growth over the next several years. Population levels are predicted to rise in town to about 29,000 before levelling off completely, according to Township demographer William C. Draper.

The population growth in the county and in Bernards still outpaced the state, where New Jersey as a whole had an annual growth rate of four-tenths of a percent from 2000 to 2008 and one-half percent from 2008 to 2009.

"Population projections indicate Somerset County population will grow slightly – 2.5 percent – by 2018 and then grow faster – by almost 6.5 percent – from 2018 to 2028.  Somerset County's population grew 9.1 percent from 2000 to 2008. Its 2010 population estimate was 324,563," said the county's report on the "Housing, Population and Economic Trends: A Driving Force" presentation at the July 20 meeting of the Somerset County Planning Board.  The presentation can be viewed at www.co.somerset.nj.us/planweb/learn.htm.

"Although Somerset County has sustained job losses and diminished population and housing growth during the economic downturn, we are poised to take advantage of the inevitable recovery thanks to our well-educated workforce and strong infrastructure," said Freeholder Patrick Scaglione, planning liaison.

Draper concluded in his 2010 report that, "After cresting in 1999-2001, births to Bernards Township residents have decreased 44 percent over the past eight years through 2009 and are projected to continue decreasing for a number of years."

Part of the reason for slowed biths in the area has been the completed development of The Hills, where many families seemed to have had all of the children they plan on having. "In 2001, 34 percent of births were residents of The Hills (125 of 367), but by 2006, only 19 percent (51 of 268) of births were to residents of the hills," said Draper. The lower percentage has held relatively constant since that time.

The Hills, themselves, were almost 100 percent completed by 2002, leading to annual household growth decreasing from 3.7 percent per year to about 0.1 percent per year as the remaining undeveloped land slowly turns residential.

The decreasing birth rate could also play a friendly role in helping the budget-challenged Bernards school district, where predicted decreasing enrollment could lead to savings over the next several years.

While jobs in Somerset County grew 40 percent from 1990 to 2000, the recent recession led to a decline in the numbers since that time. The employment rate in June, 2010 for Somerset County was 7.8 percent, compared to the state's 9.5 percent, which is predicted to continue to fall slightly by the end of the year.

Like in Bernards, the growth of housing units in Somerset County showed sharp growth through the 1990s but has since slowed. Somerset experienced 21-percent growth from 1990 to 2000, but the rate of increased slowed over the past decade. The most recent data suggests that the county will see another upsurge in development beginning around 2018 and ending in 2028.

"Somerset County has experienced a large decrease in the number of proposed residential lots and nonresidential space from 2000 to 2009.  A surplus of large, single-family and already-built housing types currently exists that will have to be exhausted before large numbers of new homes are constructed," said the report.

The new growth is expected to come in a different type of development over the next several years, according to the county report. "The 'new normal' calls for slow growth with a shift in housing preferences for smaller, more affordable, compact development within walking distance of shopping, restaurants, health care, education and public transit.  Redevelopment and reuse will dominate the commercial-development market," said the report.

Additionally, the report also gave information the Access to the Region's Core (ARC) project, which will add 62 direct lines from Somerset County rail stations into Manhattan. The project's founders hope to attract development around the newly improved rail services.

"Ridership on NJ Transit's rail network has quadrupled since 1984 and is forecast to double again over the next 20 years.  The ARC project is projected to attract public investment and economic development to New Jersey," said the report.